2021 Q1 Newsletter: Leveling Out

Venturing into 2021 has felt a bit like a walk through a fun house, taking a few steps in confidence only to lunge for the handrail as the floor suddenly moves, the path forward distorted and hard to make out. We’re seeing that uncertainty borne out through a drop in Q1 moves.

Even the bullish Texas economy wasn’t immune to a late-year spike in COVID-19 cases, political upheaval, delays while Congress hashed out the stimulus package and a historic February storm that crippled the better part of the state for a week. Each month this quarter, we’ve seen outside forces delay interviews and hiring.

Conditions do look more promising for Q2, with vaccination rates on the rise and talk of reaching herd immunity this summer. That has us wondering about a different kind of immunity — job change immunity.

Since 2018, 31 new firms have opened offices in Texas, and with each one has come a flurry of lateral moves. In total, more than 650 partner moves took place during that period. While the talent pool in Texas is wide and deep, we will eventually reach a ‘settled in’ point where folks want to stay put for a bit.

Our educated guess is that we’re approaching the job change immunity point and 2021 will be a year of leveling out. Then again, we’ll borrow the often used phrase from the past year: “Stay tuned, we’ll bring you more updates as this story continues to develop!”